Rafn's Roundup of Interesting News in Commercial Real Estate as well as a Little Shameless Self-Promotion
InterFace Seattle Multifamily Conference Takeaways
We attended the recent InterFace Seattle Multifamily Conference and found the following takeaways to be interesting:
Current Landscape Return to office is putting people in the downtown core. Stats show new out-of-state hires are the majority of new renters in the downtown core, not people moving back to the city. All the new upzoning should help drive more construction.
Finance The financing markets are getting more competitive as developers shop around more. They are seeing an increase in the spread compression from 2.25 in the early 2020s to around 0.74 to 0.78 now. A large equity-to-debt ratio of 60-40 still needs private capital to add debt to the project’s capital stack. There is still a lot of capital that is ready and looking to be distributed.
Architect Panels There are a lot of projects on the panelist’s books, and they are starting to see some project restarts. The idea of “Green Shoots” in the industry was mentioned a lot, but there is concern that they could be cut down from the economic volatility we are seeing.
Developer Panels The cost of building management has increased by 45% since 2019 for Vulcan Development. Rents need to rise to make new starts make sense. Insurance is very volatile, and costs have been skyrocketing. No one was happy about the idea of rent control and think it could kill new capital from coming to the state.
Work Will Pause in 2026 for the World Cup
From the Daily Journal of Commerce:
Seattle will be one of the host cities for the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup, set to take place from June 15 to July 6 that year.
To ensure that the city’s streets, sidewalks and transportation systems will be able to smoothly handle the expected influx of people for the event, the city has announced a temporary construction pause from June 8 to July 13, 2026, in certain areas.
A map of the affected areas can be found here.
If your project is in the affected areas and involves digging up streets or sidewalks, you’ll need to wrap up your work, restore the area, and remove any temporary coverings (like steel plates) by June 8. Restoration must meet either interim or final paving standards.
If you absolutely must continue work during these dates, you will be able to apply for a FIFA Moratorium Exception Waiver. While exceptions will be rare, the city will share more details about how to apply as the event gets closer. In addition, it will soon start adding FIFA-related conditions to permits.
In conjunction with the construction moratorium, no road closures will be allowed in certain key areas, except for emergencies.
Is a Hotdog a Sandwich?
To settle this debate once and for all (yeah, right), we took a poll of Rafn staff members and here are the definitive results:
- 74% No, a hotdog is NOT a sandwich
- 26% Yes, a hotdog is a sandwich
Current Rafn Projects
- AMLI Redmond Apartments*
- Meydenbauer Heights Stucco Reclad
- Pacific Apartments Renovation
- Recology King County
- Voices of Tomorrow Preschool
*shown (photo credit NorthWest Drone Works)
Recent Rafn Anniversaries
- Phil 37 yrs
- John L. 32 yrs
- John K. 31 yrs
- Todd 27 yrs
- Steve 25 yrs
- Todd 24 yrs
- Carlos 22 yrs
- Dustin 6 yrs
- Rodney 3 yrs
- Ryan 1 yr
- Eddie 1 yr